the GlobalChangeBiology blog

The highly polyphagous light brown apple moth (LBAM) ( Epiphyas postvittana (Walk.): Tortricidae) is indigenous to Australia and was first found in California in 2006. It is currently found in 15 coastal counties in California, but nowhere has it reached outbreak status. The USDA projects the geographic range of LBAM will include much of Arizona and California and the southern half of the U.S., which together with economic estimates of potential crop losses have been used as the rationale for an eradication program in California. We report a temperature-driven demographic model to predict the likely distribution and relative abundance of LBAM using the detailed biology reported by W. Danthanarayana and colleagues, and climate data from 151 locations in California and Arizona for the period 1995 to 2006. The predictions of our model suggest that the near coastal regions of California are most favorable for LBAM, the northern Central Valley of California being less favorable, and the de

In light of the recently developed European Union (EU) Biofuels Strategy, we reviewed the literature to examine: (1) the coherency of biofuel production with the EU non-industrial vision of agriculture, and (2) given its insufficient landbase, the implications of a proposed bio-energy pact to grow biofuel crops in the developing world to meet EU biofuel demands. The EU acknowledged that the use of food crops for biofuel production was based on wrong assumptions concerning climate change mitigation, and its support has now shifted to second generation nonfood crops. The bio-energy pact entails: (1) biofuel crops production in developing countries, especially Africa that in the absence of environmental and social regulations may lead to ethical trade-offs in land use (food vs. fuel); and (2) the use of transgenic technology that conflicts with the EU’s own vision of sustainable agriculture. Ponti L., Gutierrez A.P., 2009. Overview on biofuels from a European perspective. Bulletin of Sc

The use of marginal land (ML) for lignocellulosic biofuel production is examined for system stability, resilience, and eco-social sustainability. A North American prairie grass system and its industrialization for maximum biomass production using biotechnology and agro-technical inputs is the focus of the analysis. Demographic models of ML biomass production and ethanol farmer/producers are used to examine the stability properties of the ML system. A bio-economic model that maximizes the utility of consumption having the dynamics of MLs and the farmer/producers as dynamic constraints is used to examine the effects of increased conversion efficiency, input costs, risk, and levels of base resources and inputs on the competitive and societal solutions for biomass production. We posit ML abandonment after biofuel production ceases could lead to permanent land degradation below initial levels that prohibit the establishment of the original flora and fauna. Gutierrez A.P., Ponti L., 2009.

In the Mediterranean Basin, major islands including Sardinia are considered particularly vulnerable to global warming and desertification. We used a physiologically based demographic model (PBDM) of olive and olive fly to analyze in detail this plant-pest system in Sardinia under observed weather (ten years of daily data from 48 locations), three climate warming scenarios (increases of 1, 2 and 3 °C in average daily temperature), and a 105-year climate model scenario for the Alghero (e.g. 1951-2055). GRASS GIS was used to map model predictions, and model calibration with field bloom date data was performed to increase simulation accuracy of olive flowering predictions under climate change. As climate warms, the range of olive is predicted to expand to higher altitudes and consolidate elsewhere, especially in coastal areas. The range of olive fly will extend into previously unfavorable cold areas, but will contract in warm inland lowlands where temperatures approach its upper thermal li