the GlobalChangeBiology blog

 Coffee, after petroleum, is the most valuable commodity globally in terms of total value (harvest to coffee cup). Here, our bioeconomic analysis considers the multitude of factors that influence coffee production. The system model used in the analysis incorporates realistic field models based on considerable new field data and models for coffee plant growth and development, the coffee/coffee berry borer (CBB) dynamics in response to coffee berry production and the role of the CBB parasitoids and their interactions in control of CBB. Cultural control of CBB by harvesting, cleanup of abscised fruits, and chemical sprays previously considered are reexamined here to include biopesticides for control of CBB such as entomopathogenic fungi (Beauveria bassiana, Metarhizium anisopliae) and entomopathogenic nematodes (Steinernema sp., Heterorhabditis). The bioeconomic analysis estimates the potential of each control tactic singly and in combination for control of CBB. The analysis explains ...

( This paper made cover story .) Of fruit crops, grape is the most largely cultivated and has the highest economic importance globally; it is part of the Mediterranean bio-cultural heritage that is threatened by climate change. However, the analysis of the climate effects on grape and other crop and natural ecosystems on a regional scale has been vexing. Here, we review how sparse physiologically based demographic models (PBDM) in the context of the geographic information system GRASS GIS can be used to examine the effects of the extant weather and climate change on the dynamics of the interaction between grape and European grapevine moth across the Euro-Mediterranean region. Further, by including management-relevant complexity in a mechanistic way, the PBDM/GIS system provides the basis for a regional bioeconomic analysis of the grape system and a template for similar analyses that require modest data and funding. Ponti L., Gutierrez A.P., Boggia A., Neteler M., 2018. Analysis of ...

Climate change will make assessing and managing crop-pest systems in the Mediterranean Basin more difficult than elsewhere on the globe. The Basin is in many ways a hot spot of global change, as higher than average projected climate change threatens an extremely rich and intertwined biological and cultural diversity, and increases its vulnerability to biological invasions. As a consequence, pest problems in this hot spot will require a holistic approach to deconstruct the elusive complex interactions that are the underpinning basis for sound decision making at the field level. Building on 30+ years of multidisciplinary progress inspired by pioneering work at University of California , the ENEA GlobalChangeBiology project in collaboration with CASAS Global is developing an interdisciplinary tool to mechanistically describe (i.e., model), analyze and manage agro-ecological problems based on the unifying paradigm that all organisms including humans acquire and allocate resources by analog...

A story about the GlobalChangeBiology project was published on the Horizon 2020 website in the Projects Stories section. The European Commission DG Research had commissioned an article on the GlobalChangeBiology project for publication on the DG Research website under “success stories”. After an interview by a professional writer, the article was prepared and eventually selected for publication on the official website of the European Commission. European Commission, 2014. Modelling climate impacts on crops and pests. http://ec.europa.eu/programmes/horizon2020/en/news/modelling-climate-impacts-crops-and-pests

Olive is of major eco-social importance for the desertification-prone Mediterranean Basin, a climate change and biodiversity hotspot of global relevance where remarkable climate change is expected over the next few decades with unknown ecosystem impacts. However, climate impact assessments have long been constrained by a narrow methodological basis (ecological niche models, ENMs) that is correlative and hence largely omits key impact drivers such as trophic interactions and the effect of water availability. To bridge this gap, mechanistic approaches such as physiologically-based weather-driven demographic models (PBDMs) may be used as they embed by design both the biology of trophic interactions and a mechanistic representation of soil water balance. Here we report progress towards assessing climate effects on olive culture across the Mediterranean region using mechanistic PBDMs that project regionally the multitrophic population dynamics of olive and olive fly as affected by daily wea...

"Modeling life on Earth: an object-oriented challenge", a lighting talk given at EuroPython in Florence on July 3rd, 2013. Thanks to the Python community for support.

Control of insect pests and other taxa may be due to many factors that are difficult to separate and quantify as was the case for the control of the spotted alfalfa aphid (SAA, Therioaphis maculata Monell) in California and elsewhere. Introduced parasitoids, host plant resistance, pathogens and native predators led to its successful control, but the relative contribution of each factor remained largely unknown. The relative contribution of each control factor was estimated using a weather-driven physiologically-based demographic system model consisting of alfalfa, SAA (a), its three exotic parasitoids [ Trioxys complanatus (Quilis) (b), Praon palitans Muesebeck (c), and Aphelinus semiflavus Howard (d)], a native coccinellid beetle [ Hippodamia convergens (Guérin-Menéville)], a fungal pathogen [ Erynia neoaphidis Remaudière & Hennebert (Zygomycetes: Entomophthorales) (g)], and host plant resistance (HPR) (h). Alone, each factor failed to control SAA, as did combinations of the ...

The GlobalChangeBiology project is part of the Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change ( FACCE – JPI ) funded by the European Union under the 7th Framework Program. The goal of FACCE – JPI is to achieve, support and promote integration, alignment and joint implementation of national resources under a common research and innovation strategy to address the diverse challenges in agriculture, food security and climate change. Partnering MACSUR , the first pilot action of FACCE – JPI that will start officially in June 2012 (see first newsletter ), the GlobalChangeBiology project will provide case studies on grape and olive systems in the Mediterranean Basin. The MACSUR project is a knowledge hub that brings together 73 research groups from across Europe and will provide a detailed climate change risk assessment for European agriculture and food security, in collaboration with international projects including the GlobalChangeBiology project . As...

In a chapter to appear in the Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems , four approaches used to estimate the potential distribution of native and invasive species in agricultural, natural and medical/veterinary vector/disease systems in the face of climate change are reviewed: (1) time-series observations to document biological responses to changes in climatic variables; (2) remote sensing analysis of data; (3) climate envelope approaches (statistically-based ecological niche models and physiologically-based ecological niche models); (4) physiologically based demographic models. The bases and relative merits of the approaches are discussed. The chapter emphasizes physiologically based demographic models that may be used at the individual, population and regional scales. Such models easily include multiple trophic levels as demonstrated for the olive/olive scale system. The olive/olive-fly system embedded in a geographic information system (GIS) is used to illustrate the utility o...

Climate change will make the Mediterranean Basin vulnerable to desertification, and this will affect many species such as olive in largely unknown ways. Olive is the base of a tri-trophic food web that includes pest, disease and their natural enemy species, each of which will be affected differently by climate change. The effects of extant weather and climate change scenarios on the tri-trophic interactions can be examined using biologically-rich physiologically-based demographic models developed from field and laboratory data. Studies from Sardinia, Italy and California show how the same model can be applied to these areas, and by inference, to other areas of the Mediterranean basin and elsewhere globally. Specifically, the model enables the examination of climate change on the range of olive and olive fly. The effect of climate change on natural enemies are illustrated using the olive scale/parasitoid interactions. The same system can also be used to examine the distribution and abu...

Maps obtained using the integrated models/GIS tool developed and implemented by the GlobalChangeBiology (GCB) project are under display at OSGeo Gallery , the showcase website of theOpen Source Geospatial Foundation. Please, visit our OSGeo Gallery page to see what it looks like. The Open Source Geospatial Foundation, or OSGeo, is a not-for-profit organization whose mission is to support and promote the collaborative development of open geospatial technologies and data. An official project of OSGeo, GRASS is the GIS platform used by the GCB project.

Physiologically Based Models for assessing Climate Change Effects on Mediterranean Agroecosystems Rome, 16 June 2009 - ENEA CR Casaccia, Via Anguillarese, 301 - Sala Mimose. Celebrating 2009 World Day to Combat Desertification , June 17. 11,00 - Introduction M. Iannetta , ENEA, Head of Combating Desertification Unit 11,15 - The Marie Curie "GlobalChangeBiology" European project L. Ponti , ENEA, Principal investigator 11,40 - "Physiologically Based Models for assessing Climate Change Effects on Mediterranean Agroecosystems" A. P. Gutierrez , University of California, Berkeley, Project collaborator

Analytical tools that provide a synthesis of ecological data are increasingly needed to design and maintain sustainable agroecosystems increasingly disrupted by global change in the form of agro-technical inputs, invasive species, and climate change. This is particularly relevant to the Mediterranean Basin, a climate change hot-spot already threatened by local environmental changes including desertification. The project will provide important tools for summarizing, managing, and analyzing ecological data in agricultural systems to address global change effects using grape and olive as model systems. The project will integrate weather driven physiologically based Ecosystem Modelling (EM) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to derive a dynamic understanding of complex agricultural systems in the face of global change including climate warming. Multivariate analyses will be used to summarize the main effect of model predictions in a space and time independent way to provide a solid b...