the GlobalChangeBiology blog

Tropical fruit flies are considered among the most economically important invasive species detected in temperate areas of the United States and the European Union. Detections often trigger quarantine and eradication programs that are conducted without a holistic understanding of the threat posed. Weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models are used to estimate the geographic range, relative abundance, and threat posed by four tropical tephritid fruit flies (Mediterranean fruit fly, melon fly, oriental fruit fly, and Mexican fruit fly) in North and Central America, and the European-Mediterranean region under extant and climate change weather (RCP8.5 and A1B scenarios). Most temperate areas under tropical fruit fly propagule pressure have not been suitable for establishment, but suitability is predicted to increase in some areas with climate change. To meet this ongoing challenge, investments are needed to collect sound biological data to develop mechanistic models to predict...

A comment appeared in Proceedings B reviews a study by Papadopoulos, Plant, and Carey (2013; "From trickle to flood: the large-scale, cryptic invasion of California by tropical fruit flies." Proc. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci. 280: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.1466 ) and suggests an alternative approach that addresses the biology of invasive species. In summary, inference of establishment of fruit flies based on recurrence data as performed by Papadopoulos et al. (2013) is neither explanatory nor provides confirmation of establishment in California. By contrast, physiologically based demographic models for medfly and olive fly accurately predict the potential distribution of the two fruit flies in California and elsewhere, and provide explanation for species phenology and dynamics that is critical for risk assessment and policy development for these and other invasive species under current climate and climate change scenarios. Gutierrez A.P., Ponti L., Gilioli G., 2014. Comm...