the GlobalChangeBiology blog

 Coffee, after petroleum, is the most valuable commodity globally in terms of total value (harvest to coffee cup). Here, our bioeconomic analysis considers the multitude of factors that influence coffee production. The system model used in the analysis incorporates realistic field models based on considerable new field data and models for coffee plant growth and development, the coffee/coffee berry borer (CBB) dynamics in response to coffee berry production and the role of the CBB parasitoids and their interactions in control of CBB. Cultural control of CBB by harvesting, cleanup of abscised fruits, and chemical sprays previously considered are reexamined here to include biopesticides for control of CBB such as entomopathogenic fungi (Beauveria bassiana, Metarhizium anisopliae) and entomopathogenic nematodes (Steinernema sp., Heterorhabditis). The bioeconomic analysis estimates the potential of each control tactic singly and in combination for control of CBB. The analysis explains ...

There is no doubt that humanity needs an alternative agricultural development paradigm, one that encourages more ecologically sound, biodiverse, resilient, sustainable, and socially just forms of agriculture. The basis for such new systems are the myriad of ecologically based agricultural styles developed on hundreds of millions small farms that produce a large share of the food consumed today in the world, mostly without agrochemicals. Agroecology represents this paradigm: a dialogue of wisdoms between traditional agricultural knowledges and modern agricultural sciences that uses ecological concepts and principles for the design and management of sustainable agroecosystems where external inputs are replaced by natural processes. This international Agroecology short course was held from May 2nd to 5th, 2018 at the Center for “Climate Change and Biodiversity in Lakes and Wetlands” located on Polvese Island , Lake Trasimeno, Umbria (Italy), and was designed for scholars, students, farmer...

MED-GOLD ( Turning climate-related information into added value for traditional MEDiterranean Grape, OLive, and Durum wheat food systems ) will demonstrate the proof-of-concept for climate services in the agriculture sector by developing case studies for three hallmarks of the Mediterranean food system: grapes, olives, and durum wheat.  Agriculture is primarily climate-driven and hence highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Evidence suggests that the Mediterranean region is under immediate threat of shifting climate patterns and the associated ecological, economic and social effects. Developing a capacity to turn the increasingly big climate-related data into tailored climate services that can inform decision-making in agriculture is, therefore, a priority both in Europe and worldwide. The long-term goal of this project is to make European agriculture and food systems more competitive, resilient, and efficient in the face of climate change, by using climate serv...

The distribution and abundance of species that cause economic loss (i.e., pests) in crops, forests or livestock depends on many biotic and abiotic factors that are thought difficult to separate and quantify on geographical and temporal scales. However, the weather-driven biology and dynamics of such species and of relevant interacting species in their food chain or web can be captured via mechanistic physiologically based demographic models (PBDMs) that can be implemented in the context of a geographic information system (GIS) to project their potential geographic distribution and relative abundance given observed or climate change scenarios of weather. PBDMs may include bottom-up effects of the host on pest dynamics and, if appropriate, the top-down action of natural enemies. When driven by weather, PBDMs predict the phenology, age structure and abundance dynamics at one or many locations enabling projecting the distribution of the interacting species across wide geographic areas. PBD...

Agroecology: a viable agricultural path for a planet in crisis. It is now clear that humanity needs an alternative agricultural development paradigm, one that encourages more ecologically, biodiverse, resilient, sustainable and socially just forms of agriculture. The basis for this new systems are the myriad of ecologically based agricultural styles developed by over a billion smallholders, family farmers and indigenous people on hundreds of millions of small farms which currently produce most of the global agricultural output for domestic consumption largely without agrochemicals. Agroecology is this paradigm: a dialogue between traditional agricultural knowledge and modern agricultural science that uses ecological concepts and principles for designing and managing sustainable agroecosystems in which external inputs are replaced by natural processes such as natural soil fertility and biological control. This book explains why agroecology is the most robust food provisioning pathway fo...

Launched by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in August 2012, the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) mobilizes scientific and technical expertise from academia, civil society, and the private sector in support of sustainable development problem solving at local, national, and global scales. SDSN is chaired by Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia University (for more details see unsdsn.org ). University of Siena coordinates the SDSN Regional hub for the Mediterranean (MED Solutions). The second MED Solutions conference was held in Siena on 5-6 March 2015 ( http://www.sdsnmedconf.unisi.it ). One of the four Solutions for Agri-Food Sustainability selected and presented at the conference was "SPMP-MED: A Sustainable Pest Management technological Platform for the MEDiterranean basin" (see presentation by Dr. Gianni Gilioli linked below) that includes an approach not unlike that used by the GlobalChangeBiology project. The Mediterranean basin is a biodiversity hotspot character...

The Mediterranean Basin is a climate change and biological invasion hotspot where recent warming is facilitating the establishment and spread of invasive species, one of which is the highly destructive South American tomato leafminer ( Tuta absoluta ). This pest recently invaded the Mediterranean Basin where it threatens solanaceous crops. Holistic approaches are required to project the potential geographic distribution and relative abundance of invasive species and hence are pivotal to developing sound policy for their management. This need is increasing dramatically in the face of a surge in biological invasions and climate change. However, while holistic analyses of invasive species are often advocated, they are rarely implemented. We propose that physiologically-based demographic models (PBDMs) in the context of a geographic information system (GIS) can provide the appropriate level of synthesis required to capture the complex interactions basic to manage invasive species such as T...