the GlobalChangeBiology blog

Tropical fruit flies are considered among the most economically important invasive species detected in temperate areas of the United States and the European Union. Detections often trigger quarantine and eradication programs that are conducted without a holistic understanding of the threat posed. Weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models are used to estimate the geographic range, relative abundance, and threat posed by four tropical tephritid fruit flies (Mediterranean fruit fly, melon fly, oriental fruit fly, and Mexican fruit fly) in North and Central America, and the European-Mediterranean region under extant and climate change weather (RCP8.5 and A1B scenarios). Most temperate areas under tropical fruit fly propagule pressure have not been suitable for establishment, but suitability is predicted to increase in some areas with climate change. To meet this ongoing challenge, investments are needed to collect sound biological data to develop mechanistic models to predict...

The capacity to assess invasion risk from potential crop pests before invasion of new regions globally would be invaluable, but this requires the ability to predict accurately their potential geographic range and relative abundance in novel areas. This may be unachievable using de facto standard correlative methods as shown for the South American tomato pinworm Tuta absoluta , a serious insect pest of tomato native to South America. Its global invasive potential was not identified until after rapid invasion of Europe, followed by Africa and parts of Asia where it has become a major food security problem on solanaceous crops. Early prospective assessment of its potential range is possible using physiologically based demographic modeling that would have identified knowledge gaps in T. absoluta biology at low temperatures. Physiologically based demographic models (PBDMs) realistically capture the weather-driven biology in a mechanistic way allowing evaluation of invasive risk in novel ar...

Before its eradication from North America, the subtropical‐tropical new world screwworm fly Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel) invaded southwestern temperate areas of the U.S.A., where it caused myiasis in wildlife and livestock. Outbreaks of the fly occurred during years when adult migrants were carried northward on North American monsoon winds from the northern areas of Mexico and south Texas. We deconstruct, retrospectively, the biology and the effect of weather on the eradication of the fly in North America. Screwworm was found to be an ideal candidate for eradication using the sterile insect technique (SIT) because females mate only once, whereas males are polygynous, and, although it has a high reproductive potential, field population growth rates are low in tropical areas. In northern areas, eradication was enhanced by cool‐cold weather, whereas eradication in tropical Mexico and Central America is explained by the SIT. Despite low average efficacy of SIT releases (approximately...

There is no doubt that humanity needs an alternative agricultural development paradigm, one that encourages more ecologically sound, biodiverse, resilient, sustainable, and socially just forms of agriculture. The basis for such new systems are the myriad of ecologically based agricultural styles developed on hundreds of millions small farms that produce a large share of the food consumed today in the world, mostly without agrochemicals. Agroecology represents this paradigm: a dialogue of wisdoms between traditional agricultural knowledges and modern agricultural sciences that uses ecological concepts and principles for the design and management of sustainable agroecosystems where external inputs are replaced by natural processes. This international Agroecology short course was held from May 2nd to 5th, 2018 at the Center for “Climate Change and Biodiversity in Lakes and Wetlands” located on Polvese Island , Lake Trasimeno, Umbria (Italy), and was designed for scholars, students, farmer...

( This paper made cover story .) Of fruit crops, grape is the most largely cultivated and has the highest economic importance globally; it is part of the Mediterranean bio-cultural heritage that is threatened by climate change. However, the analysis of the climate effects on grape and other crop and natural ecosystems on a regional scale has been vexing. Here, we review how sparse physiologically based demographic models (PBDM) in the context of the geographic information system GRASS GIS can be used to examine the effects of the extant weather and climate change on the dynamics of the interaction between grape and European grapevine moth across the Euro-Mediterranean region. Further, by including management-relevant complexity in a mechanistic way, the PBDM/GIS system provides the basis for a regional bioeconomic analysis of the grape system and a template for similar analyses that require modest data and funding. Ponti L., Gutierrez A.P., Boggia A., Neteler M., 2018. Analysis of ...

The grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is the principal native pest of grape in the Palearctic region. In the present study, we assessed prospectively the relative abundance of the moth in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin using linked physiologically‐based demographic models for grape and L. botrana . The model includes the effects of temperature, day‐length and fruit stage on moth development rates, survival and fecundity. Daily weather data for 1980–2010 were used to simulate the dynamics of grapevine and L. botrana in 4506 lattice cells across the region. Average grape yield and pupae per vine were used as metrics of favourability. The results were mapped using the grass Geographic Information System ( http://grass.osgeo.org ). The model predicts a wide distribution for L. botrana with highest populations in warmer regions in a wide band along latitude 40°N. The effects of climate warming on grapevine and L. botrana were explored usi...

MED-GOLD ( Turning climate-related information into added value for traditional MEDiterranean Grape, OLive, and Durum wheat food systems ) will demonstrate the proof-of-concept for climate services in the agriculture sector by developing case studies for three hallmarks of the Mediterranean food system: grapes, olives, and durum wheat.  Agriculture is primarily climate-driven and hence highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Evidence suggests that the Mediterranean region is under immediate threat of shifting climate patterns and the associated ecological, economic and social effects. Developing a capacity to turn the increasingly big climate-related data into tailored climate services that can inform decision-making in agriculture is, therefore, a priority both in Europe and worldwide. The long-term goal of this project is to make European agriculture and food systems more competitive, resilient, and efficient in the face of climate change, by using climate serv...

Climate change is impacting agroecosystems widely. Ecological connectivity makes regions more resilient and hence helps conserve biodiversity and combat climate change, while ecologically sound analysis and management help keep agroecosystems alive. In this context, a bioeconomic approach may help guide the integration of natural and human systems. In Umbria, the origin of this approach was the opening lecture of TreviNatura (Trevi, Italy 25-27 October 2015) delivered by Professor Andrew P. Gutierrez ( CASAS Global ) and titled  " The economy of nature and humans: the role of ecosystem services " that illustrated the often conflicting interaction between humans and nature, and how this interaction can be best understood using bioeconomics, with ecosystem services playing a central role. The region of Umbria in Central Italy is particularly amenable to developing and implementing a holistic approach to the integrated management of agricultural and natural ecosystems, because t...

Yellow starthistle ( Centaurea solstitialis L.) (YST) is an invasive weed native to the Mediterranean region with a geographical centre of diversity in Turkey. It is widely established in Chile, Australia, and western North America. It arrived in California as a contaminant in alfalfa seed in 1859 and, by 2002, had infested more than 7.7 million hectares in the U.S.A. Biological control of YST using capitula feeding weevils, picture wing flies and a foliar rust pathogen has been ongoing in the western U.S.A. for more than three decades with limited success. Modelling and field research suggest natural enemies that kill whole plants and/or reduce seed production of survivors are good candidates for successful biological control. A candidate species with some of these attributes is the rosette weevil Ceratapion basicorne (Illiger). In the present study, a model of the rosette weevil is added to an extant system model of YST and its capitula feeding natural enemies and, in a GIS context...

The Mediterranean diet is described by the UNESCO Cultural Heritage of Humanity website ( http://www.unesco.org/culture/ich/en/RL/00884 ) as encompassing more than just food of the various cultures. These diets are embedded in bio-cultural landscapes that are at risk from global markets, industrial agriculture, invasive species and climate change, and yet little research aimed at conserving this Mediterranean agricultural heritage is being conducted. A focus on preserving traditional Mediterranean agricultural systems provides unique opportunities to link UNESCO-SCBD’s Joint Programme on Biological and Cultural Diversity ( http://www.cbd.int/lbcd/ ​) and FAO’s Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems initiative (GIAHS, http://www.fao.org/giahs/ ) with the goal of developing strategies and policy to preserve this heritage and the food production systems that are its basis for future generations. An important step in this direction is the development of holistic ecosystem-level a...

Cotton with coevolving pests has been grown in India for more than 5000 years. Hybrid cotton was introduced in the 1970s with increases in fertilizer and in insecticide use against pink bollworm that caused outbreaks of bollworm. Hybrid Bt cotton, introduced in 2002 to control bollworm and other lepidopteran pests, is grown on more than 90 % of the cotton area. Despite initial declines, year 2013 insecticide use is at 2000 levels, yields plateaued nationally, and farmer suicides increased in some areas. Biological modeling of the pre-1970s cotton/pink bollworm system was used to examine the need for Bt cotton, conditions for its economic viability, and linkage to farmer suicides. Yields in rainfed cotton depend on timing, distribution, and quantity of monsoon rains. Pink bollworm causes damage in irrigated cotton, but not in rainfed cotton unless infested from irrigated fields. Use of Bt cotton seed and insecticide in rainfed cotton is questionable. Bt cotton may be economic in irrigat...

Exotic species that invade new areas cause economic loss annually nearly tenfold that of natural disasters. The economic impact of such biological invasions has been considerable also in agriculture, with many major agricultural pests being invasive species, which number is expected to increase given the combined action of climate warming and globalization, particularly in the Mediterranean Basin. This region is rich in natural and agricultural biodiversity but also considerably vulnerable to biological invasions that threaten key elements of Mediterranean agro-biodiversity such as the traditional perennial crops grape and olive. Currently, most major threats to grape and olive culture are invasive species - often vector borne diseases so serious that the only control method is removal and destruction of infected crop plants. However, how to assess the potential impact of such invasive threats, and hence how to manage them, remains an unresolved and largely unexplored problem. Gaps exi...

The European Climate Adaptation Platform ( CLIMATE-ADAPT ) aims to support Europe in adapting to climate change by providing easily searchable information about expected climate change in Europe, current and future vulnerability of regions and sectors, national and transnational adaptation strategies and actions, adaptation case studies and potential adaptation options, and tools that support adaptation planning. Information is stored in a database that contains quality checked information, including reference to the GlobalChangeBiology project . Climate-ADAPT, The European Climate Adaptation Platform, 2014. Project GlobalChangeBiology: A physiologically-based weather-driven geospatial modelling approach to global change biology: tackling a multifaceted problem with an interdisciplinary tool. http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/projects1?ace_project_id=165

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution and abundance of many species, to increase the invasion of new areas by exotic species and, in some cases, to lead to extinction of species. This chapter reviews some of the links between invasive insects and climate change. The effects of climate change on insect pest populations can be direct, through impacts on their physiology and behaviour, or indirect, through biotic interactions (i.e. bottom-up and top-down eff ects). Anthropogenic climate and global change is expected to be a major driver in the introduction, establishment, distribution, impact and changes in the efficacy of mitigation strategies for invasive species. To address these problems, we must be able to predict climate change impacts on species distribution and abundance. Commonly used ecological niche modelling approaches have implicit assumptions about the biology of the target species and attempt to characterize the ecological niche using aggregate wea...

The GlobalChangeBiology project is part of the Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change ( FACCE – JPI ) funded by the European Union under the 7th Framework Program. The goal of FACCE – JPI is to achieve, support and promote integration, alignment and joint implementation of national resources under a common research and innovation strategy to address the diverse challenges in agriculture, food security and climate change. Partnering MACSUR , the first pilot action of FACCE – JPI that will start officially in June 2012 (see first newsletter ), the GlobalChangeBiology project will provide case studies on grape and olive systems in the Mediterranean Basin. The MACSUR project is a knowledge hub that brings together 73 research groups from across Europe and will provide a detailed climate change risk assessment for European agriculture and food security, in collaboration with international projects including the GlobalChangeBiology project . As...

In a chapter to appear in the Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems , four approaches used to estimate the potential distribution of native and invasive species in agricultural, natural and medical/veterinary vector/disease systems in the face of climate change are reviewed: (1) time-series observations to document biological responses to changes in climatic variables; (2) remote sensing analysis of data; (3) climate envelope approaches (statistically-based ecological niche models and physiologically-based ecological niche models); (4) physiologically based demographic models. The bases and relative merits of the approaches are discussed. The chapter emphasizes physiologically based demographic models that may be used at the individual, population and regional scales. Such models easily include multiple trophic levels as demonstrated for the olive/olive scale system. The olive/olive-fly system embedded in a geographic information system (GIS) is used to illustrate the utility o...

In the Mediterranean Basin, major islands including Sardinia are considered particularly vulnerable to global warming and desertification. We used a physiologically based demographic model (PBDM) of olive and olive fly to analyze in detail this plant-pest system in Sardinia under observed weather (ten years of daily data from 48 locations), three climate warming scenarios (increases of 1, 2 and 3 °C in average daily temperature), and a 105-year climate model scenario for the Alghero (e.g. 1951-2055). GRASS GIS was used to map model predictions, and model calibration with field bloom date data was performed to increase simulation accuracy of olive flowering predictions under climate change. As climate warms, the range of olive is predicted to expand to higher altitudes and consolidate elsewhere, especially in coastal areas. The range of olive fly will extend into previously unfavorable cold areas, but will contract in warm inland lowlands where temperatures approach its upper thermal li...

Climate change will make the Mediterranean Basin vulnerable to desertification, and this will affect many species such as olive in largely unknown ways. Olive is the base of a tri-trophic food web that includes pest, disease and their natural enemy species, each of which will be affected differently by climate change. The effects of extant weather and climate change scenarios on the tri-trophic interactions can be examined using biologically-rich physiologically-based demographic models developed from field and laboratory data. Studies from Sardinia, Italy and California show how the same model can be applied to these areas, and by inference, to other areas of the Mediterranean basin and elsewhere globally. Specifically, the model enables the examination of climate change on the range of olive and olive fly. The effect of climate change on natural enemies are illustrated using the olive scale/parasitoid interactions. The same system can also be used to examine the distribution and abu...

The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate change including pronounced climate warming and desertification. Olive ( Olea europaea ) is of eco-social importance in the Mediterranean where it was domesticated, and it is also considered a sensitive climate indicator. This crop and its major pest, the olive fly Bactrocera oleae are a suitable model system to study Mediterranean climate. A weather-driven physiologically-based demographic model (PBDM) of olive and olive fly ( http://cnr.berkeley.edu/casas/ ) is being used to analyze this plant-pest system in the Mediterranean region based on ERA-40 weather data ( http://www.ecmwf.int/ ) downscaled via the regional climate model RegCM3 coupled to the MIT ocean model. PBDM predictions are mapped with the open source GIS GRASS ( http://grass.osgeo.org/ ). Ponti L., Gutierrez A.P., Ruti P.M., 2009. The olive– Bactrocera oleae system in the Mediterranean Basin: a physiologically based analysis driven by the...