the GlobalChangeBiology blog

The capacity to assess invasion risk from potential crop pests before invasion of new regions globally would be invaluable, but this requires the ability to predict accurately their potential geographic range and relative abundance in novel areas. This may be unachievable using de facto standard correlative methods as shown for the South American tomato pinworm Tuta absoluta , a serious insect pest of tomato native to South America. Its global invasive potential was not identified until after rapid invasion of Europe, followed by Africa and parts of Asia where it has become a major food security problem on solanaceous crops. Early prospective assessment of its potential range is possible using physiologically based demographic modeling that would have identified knowledge gaps in T. absoluta biology at low temperatures. Physiologically based demographic models (PBDMs) realistically capture the weather-driven biology in a mechanistic way allowing evaluation of invasive risk in novel ar...

The South American tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta , (SATP) is now a devastating pest worldwide of crops in the family Solanaceae. Most prior studies of SATP’s thermal biology were based on populations from tropical regions, and proved unsuitable for explaining its invasion of large areas of the Palearctic. A more holistic approach to the analysis of its thermal biology is essential background for developing models to assess its invasive potential. Our studies found that SATP has lower and upper thermal thresholds (θ L  = 5.37 °C and θ U = 35.69 °C, respectively) than South American populations used in prior studies (θ L = 7.38 °C and θ U = 33.82 °C). Age-specific life tables were used to estimate the effects of temperature on its demographic parameters. Diapause in SATP had not been characterized prior to our study. We found facultative diapause in pupae developing from larvae exposed to relatively low temperatures (i.e., 2 and 5 °C) and short-day length for different exposure period...