the GlobalChangeBiology blog

( This paper made cover story .) Of fruit crops, grape is the most largely cultivated and has the highest economic importance globally; it is part of the Mediterranean bio-cultural heritage that is threatened by climate change. However, the analysis of the climate effects on grape and other crop and natural ecosystems on a regional scale has been vexing. Here, we review how sparse physiologically based demographic models (PBDM) in the context of the geographic information system GRASS GIS can be used to examine the effects of the extant weather and climate change on the dynamics of the interaction between grape and European grapevine moth across the Euro-Mediterranean region. Further, by including management-relevant complexity in a mechanistic way, the PBDM/GIS system provides the basis for a regional bioeconomic analysis of the grape system and a template for similar analyses that require modest data and funding. Ponti L., Gutierrez A.P., Boggia A., Neteler M., 2018. Analysis of ...

The grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is the principal native pest of grape in the Palearctic region. In the present study, we assessed prospectively the relative abundance of the moth in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin using linked physiologically‐based demographic models for grape and L. botrana . The model includes the effects of temperature, day‐length and fruit stage on moth development rates, survival and fecundity. Daily weather data for 1980–2010 were used to simulate the dynamics of grapevine and L. botrana in 4506 lattice cells across the region. Average grape yield and pupae per vine were used as metrics of favourability. The results were mapped using the grass Geographic Information System ( http://grass.osgeo.org ). The model predicts a wide distribution for L. botrana with highest populations in warmer regions in a wide band along latitude 40°N. The effects of climate warming on grapevine and L. botrana were explored usi...

MED-GOLD ( Turning climate-related information into added value for traditional MEDiterranean Grape, OLive, and Durum wheat food systems ) will demonstrate the proof-of-concept for climate services in the agriculture sector by developing case studies for three hallmarks of the Mediterranean food system: grapes, olives, and durum wheat.  Agriculture is primarily climate-driven and hence highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Evidence suggests that the Mediterranean region is under immediate threat of shifting climate patterns and the associated ecological, economic and social effects. Developing a capacity to turn the increasingly big climate-related data into tailored climate services that can inform decision-making in agriculture is, therefore, a priority both in Europe and worldwide. The long-term goal of this project is to make European agriculture and food systems more competitive, resilient, and efficient in the face of climate change, by using climate serv...

The polyphagous European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) is the principal native pest of grape berries in the Palearctic region. It was found in Napa County, California, in 2009, and it has subsequently been recorded in an additional nine counties, despite an ongoing eradication program. A holistic physiologically-based demographic model for L. botrana linked to an extant mechanistic model of grapevine was run using observed daily weather data to simulate and map (via GRASS GIS ) the potential distribution of the moth in California and the continental U.S.A. The model predicts L. botrana can spread statewide with the highest populations expected in the hotter regions of southern California and the lower half of the Central Valley. In the U.S.A., areas of highest favorability include south Texas, and much of the southeast U.S.A. With climate warming, L. botrana abundance is expected to increase in northern California and in the agriculturally rich Central Valley ...