The new world screwworm: distribution and eradication
The new world screwworm Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel) was eradicated in North America, Libya and other locations using the sterile insect technique (SIT). To examine the role of weather in its eradication, a physiologically-based demographic model (PBDM) was developed and used to characterize its range of year-round persistence. Winter temperature and rainfall are shown to have a strong influence on screwworm outbreaks and in facilitating eradication in North America and Libya. Prospective analysis for the Mediterranean Basin suggests eastern areas are most favorable for screwworm establishment (e.g., the Nile River area of Egypt). The SIT eradication programme and its possible extension into South America are discussed. Expected +2°C climate warming is predicted to increase the potential year-round range of screwworm in the SE USA. Gutierrez A.P., Ponti L., 2014. The new world screwworm: prospective distribution and role of weather in eradication. Agricultural and Forest Entom