the GlobalChangeBiology blog

The Asian tiger mosquito ( Aedes albopictus ) is one of the most invasive disease vectors worldwide. The species is a competent vector of dengue, chikungunya, Zika viruses and other severe parasites and pathogens threatening human health. The capacity of this mosquito to colonize and establish in new areas (including temperate regions) is enhanced by its ability of producing diapausing eggs that survive relatively cold winters. The main drivers of population dynamics for this mosquito are water and air temperature and photoperiod. In this paper, we present a mechanistic model that predicts the potential distribution, abundance and activity of Asian tiger mosquito in Europe. The model includes a comprehensive description of: i) the individual life-history strategies, including diapause, ii) the influence of weather-driven individual physiological responses on population dynamics and iii) the density-dependent regulation of larval mortality rate. The model is calibrated using field data ...

The invasive Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama vectors the bacterial pathogen ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ that is the putative causal agent of citrus greening disease (Huanglongbing disease) in citrus in many areas of the world. The capacity to predict the potential geographic distribution, phenology and relative abundance of the pest and disease is pivotal to developing sound policy for their management. A weather-driven physiologically based demographic model (PBDM) system is developed that summarizes the available data in the literature, and used to assess prospectively the geographic distribution and relative abundance of citrus, the psyllid, its parasitoid ( Tamarixia radiata Waterston), and citrus greening disease in North America and the Mediterranean Basin. The potential for natural and biological control of citrus psyllid is examined prospectively. Gutierrez A.P., Ponti L., 2013. Prospective analysis of the geographic distribution and relative abundance...

The polyphagous European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) is the principal native pest of grape berries in the Palearctic region. It was found in Napa County, California, in 2009, and it has subsequently been recorded in an additional nine counties, despite an ongoing eradication program. A holistic physiologically-based demographic model for L. botrana linked to an extant mechanistic model of grapevine was run using observed daily weather data to simulate and map (via GRASS GIS ) the potential distribution of the moth in California and the continental U.S.A. The model predicts L. botrana can spread statewide with the highest populations expected in the hotter regions of southern California and the lower half of the Central Valley. In the U.S.A., areas of highest favorability include south Texas, and much of the southeast U.S.A. With climate warming, L. botrana abundance is expected to increase in northern California and in the agriculturally rich Central Valley ...